U.S. Defense

Yesterday evening the Foreign Policy Association hosted a lecture by Ambassador Ronald Neumann (retired), current President of the American Academy of Diplomacy. As the former US Ambassador to Afghanistan from 2004 – 2007, Mr. Neumann has intimate knowledge of what happened there and also with the current situation.  Streaming video of his lecture can be seen on the FPA website.

Ambassador Neumann took some questions, which were not featured on the video, but his answers were important so I include a summary below.

The first question was about the opium trade. Neumann concurred that drugs were a major problem there. The money to be made from poppies is so great that it too has played a hand in corrupting traditional Afghan society. The US must make an anti-drug policy part of our counter-insurgency program. He discussed the problems with some of the methods that had been tried to deal with the drug problem. The British tried to buy the opium crop in 2003, but all this accomplished was that more opium was planted to sell to the British! The farmers only make about 600-700 million on a crop of opium. Meanwhile the Afghans who ship it and deal it can mark up the price and make roughly four times that amount. This creates a good situation for the farmers as now they have two markets to sell to, the occupation forces and the dealers. So, if the British want to try to buy the opium, they will end up in a bidding war with the dealers who are willing to pay almost four times its worth because they know they can still turn a profit. Since the farmers are guaranteed a buyer, more opium will be grown, so buying the crop is not the solution. 

America is already operating in Pakistan covertly, with CIA and Special Forces on the ground and Predator drones in the air. However, whether the US Army itself will cross the border and cut off the insurgent sanctuary as it did in Cambodia in 1970, remains to be seen. President Musharraf has repeatedly warned Bush about the consequences of Americans violating Pakistan’s sovereignty and taking on the tribal areas themselves saying, “the man in the street will not allow this — he will come out and agitate.” So, an increased presence of Americans risks playing into the hands of Al Qaeda’s propaganda, and increasing the ire of regular Pakistanis, but not to use US forces risks not achieving important military goals.

The New York Times reports that “the top two American intelligence officials traveled secretly to Pakistan early this month to press President Musharraf to allow the CIA greater latitude to operate in the tribal territories where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and other militant groups are all active.” Although Musharraf has denied the US unilateral means to operate inside Pakistan, he will allow better coordination of joint activities. This includes sharing of actionable intelligence so Pakistani forces can do the actual mission and increasing the number and scope of missions by armed Predator surveillance aircraft. Does this mean US operators have the power to attack with the Predators on their own volition or will they have to seek permission from the Pakistanis? These rules of engagement and the speed of decision will mean the difference between a successful hit and a target that gets away.

UPDATE: The Asia Times reports that the US has completed construction and made operational ”a military base in Afghanistan’s Kunar province, just three kilometers from Bajaur Agency in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The new US base is expected to serve as the center of clandestine special forces’ operations in the border region.”